Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 14 2023 12:31:18

ACUS01 KWNS 141231
SWODY1
SPC AC 141229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS....

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.

....MO/IL Vicinity...
Morning water vapor loop shows the upper low that has resulted in
severe storms over the Plains states the last couple of days has
weakened significantly, and is now a poorly defined shortwave trough
beginning to track southeastward into northern IL.  As this happens,
a weak surface cold front will also sag southward into MO/IL.  CAM
solutions suggest scattered thunderstorms will form along/ahead of
the front by early afternoon.  Storms should build southeastward
along the low-level theta-e/CAPE axis into southern IL.  Winds aloft
are relatively weak, and the confidence in organized severe storms
today is not particularly high.  Nevertheless, the combination of a
moist/moderately unstable airmass and linear forcing mechanisms
along the front may be sufficient for a few bowing structures posing
a risk of locally damaging winds and hail.

...Hart/Gleason.. 05/14/2023

$$

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