Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 14 2023 09:56:35

AWUS01 KWNH 140956
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-141500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0293
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Northern TX and Central/Southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140955Z - 141500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall from occasional training bands of
convection this morning will promote a localized threat for some
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a few broken bands of
heavy showers and thunderstorms lifting generally northward across
portions of far northern TX and into southern OK. The activity is
embedded within a modestly unstable airmass with MUCAPE values of
500 to 750 J/kg and is being supported by weak mid-level vort
energy advancing north up across the southern Plains.

Moisture is well-entrenched across the region given the deep layer
southerly flow and the latest NESDIS Blended-TPW data shows PWs of
about 1.5 inches across the region which is nearly 2 standard
deviations above normal. This moisture coupled with the available
instability will be capable of producing rainfall rates of as much
as 1 to 2 inches/hour.

Radar trends show the convection well aligned with the deeper=20
layer mean flow and this will favor some cell-training concerns at
least over the next few hours. This may help yield some additional
spotty totals of 2 to 4 inches by mid-morning.

Given the locally wet antecedent conditions, these additional
rains may promote a localized threat for some flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9ZM9sYYTMxDlZTnq3rw20IzxNHelU89NK_e92TgySBZB3sWULPDVyHy5i4W407d4WPDN=
fwrYkn6i1BwbHoqHuzR71vg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36369796 36119738 35259696 34199694 33469720=20
            33299791 33779853 34759890 35599897 36169871=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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