Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 14 2023 01:15:57

AWUS01 KWNH 140115
FFGMPD
IAZ000-140500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0291
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
913 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140052Z - 140500Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding remains possible as storms
linger across the discussion area through at least 04Z.

Discussion...Isolated, yet very slow-moving storms continue in a
couple of areas across Iowa as of 0040Z - one cluster located just
southeast of Des Moines and another across Pocahontas County and
vicinity.  Storm motions are also quite slow (10-20 mph), with
noted backbuilding and locally heavy rain rates observed beneath
the ongoing activity.  MRMS estimates of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
continue, and spots of 3-5 inch totals have also been both
observed and estimated by radar.

These rain rates are expected to continue for another few hours.=20
SPC Mesoanalyses indicate a band of moderate instability (around
1000 J/kg MLCAPE) extending from northwest to southeast across
Iowa this evening.  This instability, along with continued
convergence along a surface cold front/occlusion across the
region, should continue to maintain convection despite loss of
insolation shortly after sunset. The 23Z HRRR suggests that
slow-moving convection could persist in a few spots through 05Z,
with isolated flash flood potential also continuing during that
time due to the appreciable rain rates.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8-_rMssdC8dpDQNb3tZtvt8jBGC5KwEpWwHarkXYL5wpYdhBLghBSE8fBc-vYNfLA3C7=
K72DLHtTFvrLNEU3PE5hu9k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43359484 42709313 41649212 40719185 40609283=20
            40929392 41709519 42869584=20

=3D =3D =3D
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