Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 14 2023 00:58:16

ACUS01 KWNS 140058
SWODY1
SPC AC 140056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
IOWA...THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, large hail and an
isolated tornado threat remain possible this evening in parts of
central and southeast Iowa. Marginally severe storms will also be
possible in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and from eastern
Oklahoma into Ark-La-Tex.

....Iowa/Mid Mississippi Valley...
The latest water vapor and 500 mb analysis show an upper-level ridge
over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, with a well-defined
vorticity max analyzed over far southwest Minnesota. At the surface,
an inverted trough is located from western Iowa northwestward into
southeast South Dakota. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing just to
the east of this surface trough along an axis of maximized low-level
moisture, where surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s F.
A narrow corridor of moderate instability is located to the east of
the trough from northeast Missouri extending northwestward into
central Iowa.  MLCAPE along and near this axis is estimated to be in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range according to the RAP. The instability
combined with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, evident on the Davenport
00Z sounding, could support an isolated severe threat for another
hour or two. The primary threats will be for hail and strong wind
gusts.

....Eastern Oklahoma/Ark-La-Tex...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture
across the southern and central Plains, where scattered to widely
scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. At the surface, a moist airmass
is located across the eastern half of Texas northward into eastern
Oklahoma and the Ozarks. Although deep-layer shear is relatively
weak across this area, low-level lapse rates are steep. RAP analysis
has 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km in some areas. This could be
enough for a marginal wind-damage threat for another hour or two
this evening.

...Broyles.. 05/14/2023

$$

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