Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 13 2023 17:31:12 ACUS02 KWNS 131731 SWODY2 SPC AC 131729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MO/IL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... A few strong/locally severe storms are forecast to affect portions of the Midwest, lower Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and locally damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats. ....Parts of MO/IL into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley... An occluded cyclone is expected to continue decaying on Sunday, with the surface remnant of this system expected to move southward across MO in conjunction with a cold front. South of the cold front, relatively rich low-level moisture and diurnal heating will support moderate destabilization during the afternoon, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected within the weakly capped environment along/south of the front. Stronger mid/upper-level flow will remain mostly displaced north of the warm sector, but modest midlevel west/northwesterly flow will support effective shear in the 25-35 kt range, sufficient for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a supercell or two, with an attendant risk of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Some upscale growth into one or more clusters is possible during the evening, which would maintain an isolated damaging wind risk. Farther south into the TN Valley, a remnant MCS may move through the region in the morning, with potential redevelopment of isolated storms along outflow during the afternoon, and potential for additional clusters spreading southeastward into the area later Sunday evening. With generally modest instability and weak deep-layer shear in place, convection will likely remain mostly disorganized, but isolated damaging wind cannot be ruled out with any stronger rounds of convection. ....Parts of NV/UT... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Great Basin on Sunday, associated with a retrograding upper low. Modest southerly midlevel flow on the east side of the upper low may weakly augment deep-layer shear, and isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but any severe wind potential is expected to remain quite isolated. ...Dean.. 05/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .