Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 13 2023 12:49:11 ACUS01 KWNS 131249 SWODY1 SPC AC 131247 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a few tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible today in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. ....IA/IL Vicinity... A weakening upper low is moving northward into southeast SD this morning, with the surface reflection of the low just north of Omaha. By mid afternoon, a surface occluded front will stretch from northwest-southeast IA and provide the focus for thunderstorm development. Backed near-surface winds along and north of the boundary, coupled with ample moisture and pockets of heating, will result in a corridor of favorable environment for organized multicell and occasional supercell storms. Isolated tornadoes may occur, along with large hail and gusty/damaging winds. The risk area is relatively narrow, given the limited area of moderate CAPE and potential for surface-based storms. ....TX/OK... Widespread thunderstorms overnight have overturned the unstable airmass that was present across much of OK and central/east TX. Given the relatively weak flow aloft and poor lapse rates, have left only a MRGL risk from southern OK into southeast TX. The strongest cells in this region may produce gusty winds or perhaps a tornado or two. ....VA/NC... An upper trough is rotating quickly southeastward into New England, with a cold front sagging southward across WV/VA. This boundary will move into a relatively moist airmass over southern VA by mid-afternoon, where most CAM solutions show scattered thunderstorms forming. Strengthening westerly flow aloft and relatively steep boundary-layer lapse rates may result in a few strong wind gusts in the more intense cells. Activity will move into northern NC this evening before weakening. ...Hart/Gleason.. 05/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .