Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 10:57:30

AWUS01 KWNH 131057
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-131655-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0287
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
656 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...Far Eastern SD...Southwest to South-Central
MN...Central to Northern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131055Z - 131655Z

SUMMARY...Locally repeating areas of showers and thunderstorms may
pose an isolated threat of flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery shows a broken
axis of showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of central to
northern IA and across areas southwest to south-central MN.

The convection has been tending to increase a bit in coverage over
the last couple of hours given an increase in low-level
convergence/forcing around the northeast flank of surface low
pressure moving slowly northward up across the Midwest.=20
Meanwhile, there is also a nose of moderately strong instability
with MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg situated across central and
northern IA and proximity of relatively divergent flow aloft ahead
of the height falls over the central Plains.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests some further expansion of
convection over the next several hours with potentially convection
redeveloping over areas of northwest IA and into far eastern SD.
This will be in addition to the current focus a bit farther to the
east.

Rainfall rates over the next few hours will likely be as much as 1
to 2 inches/hour with some of the stronger cells, and with some
localized repeating/training of the convection, some storm totals
through mid to late morning of 3 to 4 inches will be possible. An
isolated threat of flash flooding will be possible and especially
with locally moist antecedent conditions already in place.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9lXGC_kNbIDk0xkaVClOU2Dhs5EtycZv2mS49MxfaNShxV7juLl0FW3qsu2737TB-rPB=
33S5G6n4SzdlMICCi3l9ldM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45229517 44749399 44009305 43279274 42789278=20
            42509310 42369376 42479450 43049587 43569717=20
            44489726 45119658=20

=3D =3D =3D
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