Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 10:25:00

AWUS01 KWNH 131024
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-131500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0286
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...Far Eastern OK...Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131023Z - 131500Z

SUMMARY...Relatively slow-moving areas of showers and
thunderstorms over the next few hours may result in at least a
localized concern for some flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows the leading edge of a
line of showers and thunderstorms advancing into areas of far
eastern OK and northwest AR.

This activity will continue to move east-southeast going through
the mid-morning hours and will likely tend to maintain its loose
organization as it encounters a moderate to strongly unstable
airmass characterized by MLCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg along
with a modest southwest low-level jet of up to 30 kts. There is
some evidence of a weak shortwave impulse over eastern OK as well,
and this energy may also tend to favor convective sustenance for a
while this morning.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with some of the
stronger cells, and the relatively slow cell-motions may favor
some spotty 3 to 4 inch totals over the next few hours.

Given the relatively wet antecedent conditions across portions of
eastern OK and into western AR from heavy rains over the last
couple of days, the additional rainfall this morning may result in
some localized concerns for flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-bv6Cxse5y7DaZfE5qFr-Sru2-Qo_jQjrNRHYfV_CrE049DxBLhnMAra_e5fgKkp7tVq=
hXkxDPXJCam6rf6DxARiPVU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36229367 36109242 35389195 34689250 34359339=20
            34259461 34369589 34639623 35159604 35549504=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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