Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 13 2023 09:57:04 AWUS01 KWNH 130956 FFGMPD TXZ000-131530- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0285 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 555 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Southeast to Deep South Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 130955Z - 131530Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will impact areas of southeast to far south TX through the mid-morning hours. Flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery continue to show the gradual eastward advance of convection across areas of central and southern TX, with the leading edge of this expected to advance into areas of southeast TX going through the mid-morning hours and as a separate area of convection gradually clears far southern TX. The airmass ahead of the broken MCS remains quite unstable with MLCAPE values of as much as 2000 to 2500 J/kg noted across the coastal plain. Persistent moist flow in off the western Gulf of Mexico continues as well, with southeasterly 850 mb flow of 30+ kts currently noted and this is helping to contribute to PWs across the region of as much as 1.75+ inches. The latest HRRR guidance remains rather bullish with its QPF going through the mid-morning hours and especially for areas along and just inland of the middle TX coast. The leading edge of the convection to the north of Victoria, TX has tended to slow its eastward progression over the last couple of hours, and with some of the stronger convective cells still producing rainfall rates upwards of 2 inches/hour, there may be concerns for this axis of convection to be capable of producing as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain as the overall convective mass edges closer to the coast. Some redevelopment of convection over far northeast Mexico may also have an opportunity to edge back into areas of the lower Rio Grande valley and far south TX over the next few hours as well. Therefore, with the continuation of showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of southeast to far south TX this morning, additional concerns for at least some flash flooding will exist. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9pAlsvFaZxKtGqaZFLZhMHEO9b0rJmszs5dBcEZ_dUzZcRfETj5Aa8s8YmerOmCnVNsa= RqbiF0oMeNHIKszQJzFS_aI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31009663 30959567 30289520 29469527 28749572=20 27809699 26839721 25969704 25709748 25849832=20 26009876 26419897 27249848 28429820 29129784=20 29939722=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .