Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 08:56:38

ACUS48 KWNS 130856
SWOD48
SPC AC 130854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to generally be in reasonable agreement
synoptically, with a continuation of the broad western ridge/eastern
trough upper flow configuration through the medium range.  With
passage of a cold front eastward into the Atlantic and southward to
the Gulf of Mexico days 4-5 (next Tuesday and Wednesday),
suppression of high theta-e air southward to the Gulf Coast states
and Texas will limit convective activity across much of the country.

By the middle to latter stages of the period an upper low is progged
to shift southeastward out of central Canada and into the Great
Lakes region -- eventually assisting in the reestablishment of
persistent eastern U.S. longwave troughing.

Accompanying this feature, a Canadian surface cold front is forecast
to shift southward across the Plains Day 6, across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys and Texas Day 7, and to the Atlantic and Gulf
Coasts Day 8.  This evolution will likely include an increase in
severe potential across the central and eastern states  --
particularly Days 7 and 8.  However, confidence is low at this time
with respect to narrowing down corridors of greater severe threat
this far in advance, and thus will refrain from introducing any risk
areas at this time.

...Goss.. 05/13/2023

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