Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 06:19:05

AWUS01 KWNH 130618
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-131030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0284
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Northern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130615Z - 131030Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms crossing areas of
northern TX will advance gradually east over the next several
hours. An urban flash flood threat may evolve over the Dallas-Fort
Worth metropolitan area as these storms come through.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows the northern flank of
a strong and large MCS continuing to move gradually east across
areas of northern Texas. The downstream environment remains quite
moist and unstable with MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3000 J/kg and PWs
near 1.5 inches. This will favor the upstream convective activity
maintaining its current level of organization and strength over
the next few hours as it bows off to the east.

Rainfall rates based on the latest MRMS data are as high as 1 to
1.5 inches/hour with the stronger convective cores, and the latest
radar imagery does show some redevelopment of convective cells
atop the cold pool region of the MCS behind the initial line of
storms.

Going through the remainder of the night, some storm total amounts
of 2 to 4 inches will be possible where some of these stronger
convective cells tend to repeat over the same area. A slightly
more progressive and eastward extrapolation of the 00Z NAM-Conest
and the 03Z experimental WoFS guidance favors some of these storm
totals.

An urban flash flood threat may evolve over the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area and some of the adjacent suburbs over the next
few hours as these heavier showers and thunderstorms arrive.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9QdJl7ccZPkGFwEs31zn8IOBYlWIO6tdPogZZuav17itW3CWcFiLzTZTLZp8Lqu_ftIT=
A9xOyUuEyTcOCbVXSNQAffA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33929720 33789634 32679626 32299681 32629751=20
            32509837 33109808 33649766=20

=3D =3D =3D
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