Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 04:01:38

AWUS01 KWNH 130401
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-131000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0282
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...Central to Northeast OK...Southeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130400Z - 131000Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected to favor an isolated threat of flash flooding going
through the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery has been showing some
increase in coverage of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms,
including a few supercells, across areas of central to northeast
OK and southeast KS in close proximity to a quasi-stationary
front. Very unstable air remains pooled up across the region even
at this late-evening hour with MLCAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/kg,
and this coupled with some increase in low-level convergence near
the front with 20 to 30 kt south-southwest flow in the 925/850 mb
layer appears to be driving the tendency for expanding storm
coverage.

Over the next few hours, some additional increase in the low-level
jet is expected and this will favor convective sustenance given
the highly favorable large scale thermodynamic environment that is
in place across large areas of the southern Plains this evening.

Some of the ongoing storm structures may tend to merge and
consolidate over the next few hours in favor of at least a
small-scale MCS. The 00Z HREF guidance tends to favor areas of
northeast OK seeing the greatest potential for this, and locally
heavy rainfall is expected as a result.

Rainfall rates locally in excess of 1.5 inches/hour coupled with
slow cell-motions and some cell-mergers may result in some
localized 3 to 4+ inch totals going through the overnight period.
An isolated threat of flash flooding will exist as a result, with
the more urbanized locations expected to see the greatest concerns
for runoff problems.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4TSlX-xhnOvm10gCEPsxPd7UfhcanrE1BQCk1eYASuCAYWUK1EcSWt3gUm9pcCvoMMXz=
s6sOHiB-mgUCAC5nt7mjlug$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37849525 37539454 36179475 35509600 35399740=20
            35969782 36509712=20

=3D =3D =3D
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