Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 01:14:07

AWUS01 KWNH 130114
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-130512-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0280
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
913 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...eastern Kansas, northern/northeastern Oklahoma,
and far northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130112Z - 130512Z

Summary...Very slow moving storms along a stalled cold front are
producing rain rates exceeding 2 inches per hour.  These cells
could pose a spotty/isolated flash flood risk through 03-04Z or so.

Discussion...An uptick in convective coverage has been noted over
southeastern Kansas and far north-central Oklahoma over the past
hour or so.  The increase in storms is possibly tied to a subtle
backing/increase in warm-sector low-level flow and a subtle
increase in convergence along a nearly stationary front extending
from near FNB to near PNC.  Ahead of the front, strong instability
(3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and minimal convective inhibition was present.
 Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft (generally parallel to the
front) was allowing for storm motions to parallel the front, while
individual cells were repeating over the same areas locally
especially west of St. Joseph, MO and just northwest of Fredonia,
KS.  Though the clusters of cells are fairly sparse/spaced out
along the front, the localized repeating character of the storms
were resulting in a spotty flash flood risk, with spots of 2-3
inch/hr rain rates apparent per MRMS beneath the clusters.

Convective evolution is a bit uncertain, although CAMs suggest a
continued risk of locally heavy rainfall continuing along the
front tonight.  The overall axis of heavy rainfall should shift
very little to the east over the next few hours, and these rates
should persist and cause isolated flash flooding as a result.=20
Some hints at upscale growth into a small MCS are noted in recent
runs of the HRRR, and this scenario seems plausible as once mature
cold pool(s) begin to form, convective evolution/propagation could
be driven more on the mesoscale as observed farther south along
the front/dryline in Texas.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5GdFgLD7YXUzxhr0YLc6ZWc-sFtN_tGauJyYFaO5f-wDeLD91P971SMXrzVVLdJNKvT1=
my0u2U9FiMbZfwnUOoPI348$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40669497 40539420 39819426 38689478 37019532=20
            36419614 36549739 37079741 38189653 39329601=20
            39649602 40329563=20

=3D =3D =3D
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