Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0781
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 00:32:32

ACUS11 KWNS 130032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130032=20
TXZ000-130200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 130032Z - 130200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread into portions of south-central
TX later this evening. New severe thunderstorm watch appears
warranted.

DISCUSSION...A expanding corridor of deep convection has developed
from northeast Mexico into the Edwards Plateau region early this
evening. This activity is supported by a low-latitude short-wave
trough ejecting slowly across northern Mexico toward this region.
Latest radar imagery depicts an expansive precip shield trailing the
leading squall line, which currently stretches from Crockett
County-Kinney County-west of Laredo. Leading edge of this activity
will propagate east of ww216, aided by 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly
flow in association with the short wave. Ample buoyancy resides
immediately downstream across south-central TX and this convection
should easily advance east of current watch.

...Darrow/Thompson.. 05/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_IS9k7LfOc4Yeg-ZUxhlIJcWyDLlD-CkH4XiFuiqjnDecPR4SfEdt2naC_r4EP2wZmyFqKMQ2=
-_cRmr3OHYcSG23FNs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28880064 30330077 30239915 27629868 27399961 28880064=20


=3D =3D =3D
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