Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0780
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 00:30:04

ACUS11 KWNS 130029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130029=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218...

Valid 130029Z - 130230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of large hail and damaging winds should continue
increasing across parts of eastern Kansas during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional VWP data indicates around 40-50 kt of 0-6 km
shear oriented perpendicular to a north-south-oriented dryline over
eastern KS -- supporting discrete/semi-discrete supercell
structures. With generally weak forcing for ascent, these updrafts
were initially narrow, though recent cell mergers/congealed cold
pools have yielded wider updrafts and a corresponding uptick in
severe-risk. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and the continued
semi-discrete mode should favor large hail (up to 2 inches) and
locally damaging gusts. However, some increase in the low-level jet
over the next few hours could also yield slightly higher SRH, and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

...Weinman.. 05/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9iN6offWAzpE-A3zFmbpoV5bmynXUOC7XeSW2Tjee0mMq7cP-XpoBgZCg75XpkARG-RhB4MfQ=
eYy83nfwUAqlHxjSqw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37079687 37539657 38449614 38829602 39189583 39269558
            39199511 39049488 37909510 37079553 36959593 36929668
            37079687=20


=3D =3D =3D
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