Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 13 2023 00:27:06

AWUS01 KWNH 130027
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-130625-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0279
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130025Z - 130625Z

Summary...Convection over western north Texas and vicinity
(Wichita Falls to Abilene) will continue to pose an isolated flash
flood risk tonight across the remainder of north Texas.

Discussion...Storms generally along and west of US 277 between
Wichita Falls and Abilene continue to remain vigorous while
producing areas of 2-2.5 inch/hr rainfall rates (estimated per
MRMS).  These storms have recently began to show indications of
upscale growth while propagating erratically east-southeastward at
around 10-15 mph.  These rates are locally exceeding the 1.5-2.5
inch/hr FFG thresholds across the area and could pose flash flood
potential in the short term - especially if heavier rates can
materialize in Abilene and across sensitive/low-lying areas.

Over time, these storms will continue to propagate erratically,
but generally deviant from weak southerly mid-level flow across
the region.  Evolution/propagation will likely remain slow and be
governed by local convective processes (including
expanding/merging cold pools).  Additionally, these storms will
propagate into a strongly unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE per SPC
Mesoanalysis) and moist (1.5 inch PW) airmass that should help
storms retain their efficient rainfall rates.  Additional cells
just ahead of the more mature storms could prolong rain rates,
while modest increases in southeasterly low-level flow ahead of
the storms should help to maintain at least loose organization of
convection.  Over the next 2-4 hours, these heavy rain rates could
eventually impact areas near Bowie and Mineral Wells that
experienced 5-7 inches of rainfall from storms yesterday evening.
Flash flooding will remain possible with this activity.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7UmwVyBsTga-nwzsiIy9kz6Pdp7dmNw3VVQeM9roAxrY5pJBGK7I-tXuaHUVnNkw1ttv=
lZQOz-NUILfkqxE4fXR5VzM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34119868 33939738 33249687 32379713 32049859=20
            32040046 33170041 33929933=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.