Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 12 2023 23:58:07

AWUS01 KWNH 122358
FFGMPD
MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-130556-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0278
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
757 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...southern South Dakota, northern through eastern
Nebraska, western Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122356Z - 130556Z

Summary...Deep, slow-moving convection continues to pose a flash
flood risk over the next 3-6 hours.

Discussion...A band of deep convection continues on the northern
and eastern periphery of a strong mid-level low over central
Nebraska.  These storms continue to move slowly (around 15-25
mph), with localized backbuilding and training continuing to
foster spots of 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates.  These storms continue
to fall outside of the FFG maxima located in the Sand Hills, with
local exceedence of FFG (generally 1-1.5 inch/hr thresholds)
continuing beneath slower-moving and backbuilding storms.  Spots
of moderate MRMS Flash responses were also noted with the cluster
of storms near Auburn, NE recently.

The 12Z HREF continues to have a decent handle on ongoing
convection.  It, and current observations/mesoanalysis suggest
that heavier rain will continue through 03-06Z in a couple of
areas - downstream of intense convection in eastern Nebraska
(eventually spreading into western Iowa and perhaps far
southeastern South Dakota) and just ahead of the mid-level low
across south-central South Dakota near/just north of Valentine,
NE.  While the HREF depicts somewhat lower rain rates over time,
individual backbuilding clusters may still produce 2-3 inch/hr
rain rates at times especially in western Iowa through the early
overnight hours.  These rates are sufficient for occasional flash
flood instances through 06Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7yt7YEM6pCUxFaheYRhdM6HA1n9PWWHwceY4Gn7siFFT3iGaWeDwmJ6EL_IhBIbtz_rJ=
QV2lVNH5oucNt2U6R5rFulY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...EAX...FSD...LBF...OAX...TOP...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44730089 44469950 44039759 43579595 43149381=20
            42279328 41119351 40159457 39679530 40089608=20
            40869678 41679763 42379856 42629995 42800199=20
            43550209 44090194 44500173=20

=3D =3D =3D
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