Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0777
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 12 2023 22:43:34

ACUS11 KWNS 122243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122243=20
TXZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...Parts of west/southwest TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...

Valid 122243Z - 130015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms will continue this evening,
with a threat of severe hail/wind. Some larger storm clusters may
form later tonight and spread eastward.

DISCUSSION...At 2230 UTC, scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of southwest TX, along/east
of a dryline and in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough
moving northeastward out of northern Mexico. Rich low-level moisture
and relatively steep lapse rates are supporting large buoyancy, with
MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg noted across the region. With weak
deep-layer flow/shear in place, a mixture of pulse and weak
multicells is expected to continue through the evening, with a
threat of at least isolated large hail and strong/severe outflow
gusts.=20

With time, conglomerating outflows may result in an
eastward-advancing cold pool and potentially a loosely organized
MCS, which would result in a continued strong/severe wind threat
into a larger part of central TX, though this may not occur until
relatively late in the evening.

...Dean.. 05/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5A7Eel6Vv9vIRAXSe2MpINdASgy2dpoAF3BMJRBi_DGl-G-NvH2ELNV4NE_-P-kFhtEHwI0j3=
_YGEkH0_DHiBAIzbSk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30500364 33130051 33019902 30849949 29140023 28850109
            28850281 28940329 29630365 30500364=20


=3D =3D =3D
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