Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 12 2023 13:08:29

AWUS01 KWNH 121308
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-121735-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0272
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
907 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...south-central AR into northern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121306Z - 121735Z

SUMMARY...Training convection across south-central AR into
northern MS may result in localized flash flooding. Rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr and 2-4 inch totals are expected through 17Z.

DISCUSSION...1250Z radar imagery and surface observations placed
an outflow boundary stretching ENE to WSW over south-central AR.
The western end of the outflow has slowed forward progression
compared to the eastern end, with overrunning low level flow
supporting regeneration and training over southwestern AR along
with MRMS-derived rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. 850 mb VAD wind
plots showed 45-50 kt between KLZK and KSHV at 11Z but these winds
have weakened to ~35 kt as of 1244Z (SHV) with further weakening
expected through the remainder of the morning, following the
diurnal cycle.

However, in the interim, training is expected to continue with
~1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE (12Z LIT/SHV soundings) being advected
northward atop the outflow boundary and Corfidi vectors allowing
cells to train/backbuild from SW to NE or W to E. This scenario is
expected to continue for at least the next 1-2 hours but may
persist longer despite the weakening low level jet. An additional
2-4 inches, locally, can be expected for portions of south-central
AR, with training possibly continuing into northern MS later this
morning. Wet antecedent soils may leave some locations more
susceptible to flash flooding compared to average.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-oW8SgPmJycsikQ6eobOZtIHi1349LveNfNf_G2aXiB7zmfdlhpZNiI8gpnjeKNQ07Hl=
OW8s-4J__EaLNRgNcUUA17o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35149015 35008933 34408940 33839022 33429185=20
            33299337 33699389 34169373 34919190=20

=3D =3D =3D
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