Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 12 2023 12:24:27 ACUS01 KWNS 121224 SWODY1 SPC AC 121222 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND VICINITY.... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across northeast Nebraska and vicinity, where a few tornadoes, very large hail and wind damage will be possible. Strong to severe storms are also expected to develop from eastern Kansas southward to Texas this afternoon, with a potential for damaging winds and large hail. ....Northeast NE and Vicinity... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over northwest KS, with a moderately strong mid level jet rotating around the low across KS. An associated surface low is also over northwest KS, with a warm front extending eastward from low roughly along the KS/NE border. This surface low will occlude and lift northward through the morning, while drying and veering low-level winds spread across much of KS and western/central NE. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along an axis from the surface low into eastern NE. These storms will be in a region of moderate CAPE, backed low-level winds, increasing wind speeds with height, and considerable ambient vorticity. This should promote supercell storm structures capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Individual storms will track northward, while the zone of storms translates eastward into southeast SD and western IA through the early evening. ....Eastern KS into southern OK... By mid-afternoon, the trailing Pacific cold front will extend southward from eastern NE into eastern KS and eastern/central OK. The air mass ahead of the front should see considerable daytime heating, with dewpoints quite high (mid-upper 60s+) from eastern OK southward. This will lead to an axis of relatively high CAPE values and scattered thunderstorm development along the front. Supercell structures are possible from eastern KS into eastern OK, with a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will move slowly eastward into western MO/AR before weakening after dark. ....West-Central TX... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today over much of central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s and strong heating expected. This will lead to considerable coverage of thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Flow aloft is rather weak and meridional, which should result in rapid outflow mergers and storm interactions. The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail, and larger storm clusters may pose a risk of damaging winds. Activity should weaken after dark as it moves into central TX. ...Hart/Gleason.. 05/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .