Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 12 2023 07:08:26

ACUS03 KWNS 120708
SWODY3
SPC AC 120707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Strong/scattered severe storms are forecast to affect portions of
the Midwest/Ohio Valley Sunday.  Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary risks.

....Synopsis...
While a blocking pattern aloft prevails over the western U.S.
Sunday, troughing/cyclonic flow is expected to remain over the
Northeast, while expanding gradually southward through the period.

At the surface, a very weak low/front -- associated with the
remnants of an upper low -- will move east-southeastward across the
Midwest, focusing an area of thunderstorms and some risk for severe
weather Sunday afternoon and evening.

....Midwest/Ohio Valley region...
As remnants of an upper low move east-southeastward across the
Midwest Sunday, a very weak/accompanying surface low is progged to
do the same.  As this low, and trailing cold front, shift advance
across the Illinois/Indiana vicinity through the day, a
moist/diurnally destabilizing warm sector will support development
of afternoon thunderstorms.  Aided by moderate west-northwesterly
flow aloft, storms posing local hail/wind risk may organize into a
southeastward-moving MCS by late afternoon.  This may permit risk
for damaging wind gusts to spread across the mid Ohio Valley into
Kentucky through the evening.  While nocturnal stabilization should
eventually result in a diminishing severe threat overnight, storms
will likely spread into the central/southern Appalachians region
through the end of the period.

...Goss.. 05/12/2023

$$

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