Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 12 2023 06:00:26

ACUS02 KWNS 120600
SWODY2
SPC AC 120558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are forecast to develop across parts of Iowa
and vicinity, and diminishing in coverage southeastward toward the
lower Ohio Valley.  Scattered severe storms are also forecast across
parts of South Texas, with isolated risk across a broader portion of
the central Plains.

....Synopsis...
Two weakening upper lows -- one moving north-northwestward across
Texas and the other shifting out of the Mid-Missouri Valley toward
the Upper Mississippi Valley, will focus broad areas of convection,
and some severe risk across both of these areas.  Elsewhere,
northwesterly/cyclonic flow aloft will persist across the Northeast,
while ridging prevails over the Southeast, and a blocking pattern
evolves over western North America through the period.

...Iowa/northwestern Illinois vicinity...
As the weakening upper low drifts eastward toward/across Iowa and
southern Minnesota, afternoon storm development is forecast near and
just north of the front -- most likely from northern Iowa
east-southeastward into northwestern Illinois.  The storms will be
initiating within an airmass featuring steep mid-level lapse rates
and moderate CAPE, suggesting at least a few intense updrafts.
Storm intensity will also be aided by very favorable shear near and
particularly just to the cool side of the front, where enhanced
low-level southeasterlies will reside beneath moderate mid-level
southwesterly flow just south of the center of circulation aloft.
Thus, along with potential for locally damaging winds and hail,
tornado risk is also apparent.  As location of the front becomes
more certain in future updates, a narrow corridor of higher tornado
probability may be required.

Storms should spread/develop east-southeastward, with some hints
that an MCS could evolve during the evening, and shift southeastward
across Illinois and Indiana along with some accompanying hail/wind
risk.

....South/southeast Texas...
Widespread thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of
southeastern/southern Texas at the start of the period --
potentially in the form of an MCS.  While uncertainty exists, due to
overnight evolution of storms prior to the start of the period
Saturday morning, at least some convectively uncontaminated airmass
will likely remain -- which would heat/destabilize through the day.
As such, expect storms to expand in coverage through the day,
accompanied by risk for locally damaging winds and hail.  Much of
the risk will likely occur during the day, with storms gradually
weakening, and moving offshore, through the evening.

...Goss.. 05/12/2023

$$

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