Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 12 2023 05:55:51 AWUS01 KWNH 120555 FFGMPD OKZ000-121054- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0270 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 154 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Southeast to East-Central OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120554Z - 121054Z SUMMARY...A slow-moving cluster of very heavy showers and thunderstorms will pose a concern for localized flash flooding over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows an impressive cold-topped convective cluster over areas of southeast OK that is moving quite slowly off to the east-northeast. The activity is being maintained in part by presence of a small-scale vort center which is likely being reinforced by convective processes. However, this energy is also embedded within a strongly unstable airmass with MLCAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/kg and proximity of a 30 to 40+ kt south-southwest low-level jet. The convection over the last 1 to 2 hours has been characterized by some back-building characteristics with some small-scale cell training occurring. This is especially the case with the latest radar trends involving Coal and Pittsburg counties. Some additional expansion of the convective mass is possible over the next few hours given the nose of the low-level jet energy over the area and the persistently strong thermodynamic environment. While the overwhelming hazards associated with this convective cluster have been severe weather, there may be a sufficient level of cell-training over the next 2 to 3 hours for some flash flooding to evolve, and especially with the back-building cell potential that is in place. GC-MRMS has been depicting 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates with the stronger cores, and some 3-hour totals are locally up over 4 inches. The 00Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs are overall under doing the level of organization of this activity. Based on the latest satellite and radar trends, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible over the next few hours with isolated heavier amounts. Expect at least a localized threat of flash flooding as a result. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_EdUQRwwwN6P3hvBfXA8OEIlfgvX0IAtCaUeH8sAGC8crtnd9_iOZhI1gEcbB5p0dqkG= ARqu79LD6i2e7v9atzNrFLs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35569493 35159451 34579512 34219637 34459674=20 35179600=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .