Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 12 2023 05:26:52 AWUS01 KWNH 120526 FFGMPD KSZ000-NEZ000-121125- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0269 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 125 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 Areas affected...Northwest KS...Southwest to Central NE Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120525Z - 121125Z SUMMARY...Areas of redeveloping showers and thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat of at least localized flash flooding across areas of northwest KS and into southwest to central NE through the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows areas of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing to develop and impact areas of southwest to central NE as moist and relatively unstable deeper layer southeast flow around the northeast flank of a closed upper low over eastern CO overruns a quasi-stationary front draped across the region. In fact, MLCAPE values are still on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg across northern KS and up into southern NE, and the frontal zone continues to be a focus for stronger low-level convergence/forcing to help sustain the convective threat. Going through the overnight hours, the upper low over eastern CO should drift slowly off to the northeast and approach the CO/NE/KS tri-state border region toward dawn. The core of the upper low and associated dynamics will continue to interact with the front over the region, and should favor areas of redeveloping convection overnight for areas of southwest to central NE and potentially as far southwest as northwest KS. This will be in addition to the ongoing activity seen a bit more broadly over southwest to central NE to the south of the Sand Hills region. The soil conditions across the region are becoming increasingly saturated given the repeating rounds of heavy rainfall seen over the last 24 to 36 hours, and the lowering FFG trends are reflective of this. The 00Z HREF guidance supports locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain overnight with the aid of some of the stronger cells producing 1 to 1.5 inch/hour rainfall rates and locally training over the same area. Given the increasingly sensitive soil conditions and additional rainfall potential, additional localized areas of flash flooding will be possible. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hccqxrSBUE7K05ctDKrRH0ZQx0Sb7AXPL7ZmNNv9ly3sgGFZPIqO2RQY0xruT4vo8oA= AGKtZDuzp314tjCoCgVXzRs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41619940 41409839 40669855 39819956 39440059=20 39370153 39600192 40160199 40570168 41100084=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .