Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 12 2023 00:20:15

AWUS01 KWNH 120020
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-120312-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0268
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
819 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023

Areas affected...central/southern Oklahoma, north-central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120012Z - 120312Z

Summary...Some concern exists that spotty, yet heavy rainfall
rates could materialize over sensitive areas, causing localized
flash flooding.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates scattered
supercellular development along and just ahead of a dryline
located along the US 81 corridor in western Oklahoma and western
areas of north Texas.  While convective coverage is not
widespread, very slow storm motions and areas of localized
training of cells are contributing to localized 1 inch/hr amounts
just southwest of Oklahoma City and 2-3 inch/hr rain rates near
Jacksboro and Bowie, TX.

As the low-level jet continues to increase to around 25-30 knots
through the evening, destabilization is expected to continue
across central Oklahoma.  Meanwhile, strong buoyancy (2500-3500
J/kg MLCAPE) should be maintained along and ahead of the dryline
over the next few hours.  General thinking is that a modest
increase in convective coverage could occur over the next few
hours, with localized 1-2.5 inch rain rates continuing near the
more dominant/persistent cells.  A few of these cells could make
it in to more populated/urbanized areas (i.e., Oklahoma City),
resulting in localized flash flooding.  FFGs across the region
vary from 1.5-3 inches/hr, and these values are most likely to be
exceeded where cells are persistent and/or locally training.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5X5UsNl-1zU7vY3d9yvBkJCWqfqhfneMvGMJRQdIRrBbRwaepfEfcCWLimHuYXTr9hDm=
qg_t4tPFhvAnnebNbJyig7E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36499765 36319623 35919568 35059545 34249558=20
            33599597 32819688 32339784 32249869 32819896=20
            33759875 34569879 36019837=20

=3D =3D =3D
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