Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 11 2023 23:20:17 AWUS01 KWNH 112320 FFGMPD KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-120518- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0267 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 719 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Areas affected...northwestern Kansas, southern/southwestern Nebraska, eastern Colorado Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 112318Z - 120518Z Summary...Redeveloping convection in the wake of an earlier complex will likely renew flash flood concerns across portions of the region. Additional storms from Hays, KS to North Platte, NE also pose a flash flood risk. Discussion...An earlier complex of storms produced widespread areas of 1+ inch rainfall amounts across the discussion area, with localized areas of 3-7 inch totals depicted by MRMS radar data over the past 12 hours. The complex mostly responsible for the rainfall totals (and areas of localized flooding) has lifted north-northeastward toward the McCook area. In its wake, destabilization due to persistent south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection and insolation beneath a stout mid/upper low has caused re-development of convection to occur just south/southwest of Goodland, KS. Slow movement of this convection was allowing for occasional 2 inch/hr rainfall rates to develop with this activity, and as low-level (850mb) advection/destabilization intensifies through the evening, convection could redevelop into areas that received the heaviest of rainfall earlier - especially where re-destabilization is most pronounced. Flash flooding would become likely in this scenario. Additional flash flooding is possible across areas extending from near North Platte, NE south-southeastward to Hays, KS this evening. Models/obs point to continued south-to-north development of storms across this area in tandem with increasing convergence on the nose of a 40-kt low-level jet centered near Dodge City/Pratt, KS over the next 3-5 hours, and localized training remains possible given south-to-north movement of developing storms in association with meridional steering flow aloft. Eventually, the greatest convective coverage should shift northeastward and lessen gradually in tandem with movement of the mid-level wave and loss of insolation. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5aLVBsnyIHnlyZS6jea00LyIm6na4AXFpyowlJfKvtKe4Ia4AF2LI5b2bLpp6SBvv5dR= -_kKR-lrUWkeQer-abMRyWM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41320093 41189938 40239871 39229864 38689888=20 38249950 38490057 38470198 38220267 38380333=20 39230338 39970269 40680238=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .