Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0767
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 22:43:22

ACUS11 KWNS 112243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112242=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 213...

Valid 112242Z - 120015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 213 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest near-term supercell tornado threat should be
focused over portions of south-central Oklahoma between I-44 and
I-35 during the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KFDR shows an evolving discrete
supercell in Cotton County, OK -- where surface convergence is
maximized along the intersection of a remnant outflow boundary and
differential heating boundary. Additional discrete updrafts are also
developing northward along the boundary into Comanche County. Ahead
of this activity, visible satellite imagery shows billow clouds
transitioning to HCRs, indicative of recovering outflow-modified
air. Continued recovery/destabilization amid lower 70s dewpoints
should favor continued intensification of the ongoing updrafts
during the next couple of hours -- and weak large-scale ascent
should favor a continued discrete mode. During the next couple of
hours, a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet should favor larger,
clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH)
-- supportive of longer-lived mesocyclones and a corresponding
increase in supercell tornado threat.

...Weinman.. 05/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8-bz5oLYR2MjQ9CqFVy9vm_gxUTP48O160gzsPxxQn593bDewfxxJwei6OmxGr0-XpqHaRP8p=
wfANiNsKCRhBLwI5e0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   34129822 34329829 34649834 34989823 35099795 34999761
            34639749 34349752 34099767 34059790 34129822=20


=3D =3D =3D
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