Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0762
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 16:58:52

ACUS11 KWNS 111658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111658=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-111930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Areas affected...much of western Kansas and small parts of bordering
states

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 111658Z - 111930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity and coverage
throughout the day from eastern Colorado arcing southeastward across
western and central Kansas. Large hail is likely, with a few
tornadoes and damaging gusts possible as well.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery show favorable boundary layer
conditioning as storms from eastern CO into western KS begin to
intensity. Surface heating will continue to steepen lapse rates and
increase instability over a wide area, from NE southward across KS.
Meanwhile, low-level winds are strengthening across the TX/OK
Panhandles into southwest KS, which will enhance convergence and
instability into southwest KS soon.=20

Deep-layer easterlies within the lowest  2-3 km with strengthening
southwesterlies aloft will favor supercells. While low-level SRH may
not be particularly strong due to the entrenched easterlies in the
low levels, it will be sufficient given cooling aloft and favorable
time of day. In addition, these hodographs should strongly favor
damaging hail with forward-tilting storms.

...Jewell/Guyer.. 05/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7v3GN0V6MZ0XOEztp7YjKSl-jFPtS_W8206SQv_WHwCNAj0kxt6anxBcho2hxff6wbiWpbZrt=
YpUtcvl1BNYUm34XJ8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37159859 36979898 36839970 36800032 37030061 37330085
            37790136 38100161 38500215 38800241 39210234 39610220
            39900184 40080130 40140031 40069991 39699940 38939880
            38449858 38239851 37739846 37339846 37159859=20


=3D =3D =3D
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