Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 11 2023 16:49:37 AWUS01 KWNH 111649 FFGMPD KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-112245- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0263 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1248 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023 Areas affected...central/eastern CO into northwestern KS and southwestern NE Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 111647Z - 112245Z SUMMARY...Bands of heavy rain with embedded convection will pivot northward around a slow moving closed low located in CO. Additional rainfall totals of 1-3 inches and areas of flash flooding are expected through 23Z across portions of the central High Plains with rainfall rates occasionally exceeding 1 in/hr. DISCUSSION...16Z GOES East water vapor imagery showed a slow moving closed low in the mid-levels over southern CO with a well-defined warm conveyor belt extending from the Southern Plains into west-central KS and northeastern CO. Areas of moderate/heavy rain with embedded convection have been ongoing much of this morning across the southern CO Front Range, with recent translation to the north along with recent convective development to the east along the CO/KS border. Over the past 6 hours, 1-3 inches of rain has been reported along and east of the I-25 corridor from Colorado Springs to south of Pueblo, containing embedded rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The environment contained estimated (16Z SPC mesoanalysis) MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs of 0.5 to 1 inch or roughly 2 standard deviations above the mean.=20 There is good agreement in the short term model guidance that the mid-level closed low and southeastward extending trough axis will slowly translate northward this afternoon, causing the axis of greatest low level moisture flux to pivot north and east through CO and KS beneath divergent and diffluent flow aloft. Convergence of low level easterly upslope flow in eastern CO will support periods of moderate to heavy rain from the Denver/Fort Collins metro areas eastward to near Rt. 71, but instability should limit peak rainfall rates to less than 1 in/hr. Despite the limited instability though, this region of CO contains FFG of only about 1 inch in 3 hours which could be exceeded on the local level. Farther east, increasing transport of low level moisture is expected to allow ~1.3 inches of PW into northwestern KS with 1.1 to 1.2 inches for southwestern NE by 20Z. MLCAPE is also forecast by the RAP to increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range where SE to NW axis of training and repeating heavy rain are expected to support rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr and 6-hr totals of 2 to 3 inches from northwestern KS into northeastern CO and southwestern NE. Portions of northwestern KS received about 3 to 5 inches of rain over the past 24 hours which has increased susceptibility to flash flooding. Additional areas of flash flooding are considered likely through 23Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-9L1yuEfdpWGjOhUJ0hxEtpn18jaOY0wQUFvTikhEMdupdVImsSFgIA0lisI22HuYWGo= shEYm1ExiYbyeeAxdXz4mFQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41400249 41300179 40360054 39459999 38730016=20 38280082 38260144 38340200 38660261 38900344=20 38980441 38980499 39330514 39960515 40660466=20 41370347=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .