Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0761
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 14:00:49

ACUS11 KWNS 111400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111400=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-111630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Areas affected...northern Louisiana into western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111400Z - 111630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A concentrated area of strong storms will likely persist
today, with a few severe storms expected.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to evolve around an MCS, with a very
moist and unstable air mass available. Sufficient low-level shear
exists to support rotation within the stronger cells as they
propagate around the south and east side of the MCV, with low-level
shear enhancement from the MCV itself. Winds aloft are weak, but
low-level SRH is favorable with 850 mb winds over 30 kt. A focused
area of strong to locally severe storms, including strong gusts or
marginal hail, will remain possible throughout the day as the air
mass heats ahead of the MCV.

...Jewell/Guyer.. 05/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4LSV3oPF2294bGQIfwzwiClzDpdoHMvGPOQPj_kbeWNZM_DFDSLiNuBhR0koTsnSj-ALq1nas=
vukcpEIx1EfQsKubNc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31629117 31309192 31139258 31079337 31149385 31309413
            31639421 31989417 32059400 32369351 32799324 33109296
            33429245 33529200 33419154 33169104 32709068 32239066
            31839089 31629117=20


=3D =3D =3D
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