Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 10:02:02

AWUS01 KWNH 111001
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-111600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0261
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023

Areas affected...Central and Eastern CO...Far Northwest KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111000Z - 111600Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms with some
locally repeating cell activity will drive at least some concerns
for localized flash flooding this morning, and especially with
increasingly wet antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows clusters of heavy
showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of central to
eastern CO and far northwest KS as moist and deep southeast flow
continues around the northeast flank of a mid to upper-level
trough over the Four Corners region which is gradually advancing
off to the east.

Sufficient instability is expected to remain in place this morning
along with deep layer dynamical ascent to maintain a threat of
locally heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. Proximity of a
surface front and surface low pressure over southeast CO will also
be a facilitator of the heavy rainfall threat.

Expect the stronger cells to be capable of producing rainfall
rates as high as 1 to 1.5 inches/hour, and with some additional
storm totals going through midday of 2 to 3+ inches.

Given the heavy rainfall that has already occurred last evening
and overnight, the additional and persistent rainfall threat this
morning may favor at least a localized threat of flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4pdy_YR0vdFioRewSyrc5mYYTtjds8S0Zucc47xt-2EnNDC-LMexXJKV5ahVhwmtfH3l=
b8TEsZQyjnsXhIngN3WrluE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40510246 40240160 39770113 39130119 38630221=20
            37980332 38020452 38320533 39050554 39930473=20
            40450352=20

=3D =3D =3D
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