Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 07:06:58

AWUS01 KWNH 110706
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-111115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0259
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023

Areas affected...Southern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110705Z - 111115Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat of flash flooding may evolve across
portions of southern MN from slow-moving and locally back-building
areas of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a relatively
slow-moving cluster of showers and thunderstorms crossing areas of
southern MN as a small-scale shortwave impulse rides the crest of
a larger scale mid-level ridge over the Midwest. The convection
over the last couple of hours has been producing rainfall rates of
as high as 1.5 to 2 inches/hour, and more recently, there has been
some expansion of the convection including some redevelopment
around the western flank of the stronger cells.

Over the next few hours, there will likely be enough low-level jet
energy overrunning a quasi-stationary front nearby to keep the
convection sustainable although it will be in an elevated fashion.
MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, and this
small-scale MCS should generally advance southeast parallel to the
instability gradient.

Given some potential for a bit of back-building cell activity over
the next few hours, there may be some spotty rainfall amounts that
reach into the 2 to 4 inch range by dawn. A consensus of the 00Z
HREF guidance tends to support this. This may allow for an
isolated threat of flash flooding as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-vSK6mH5spRhDKpqbJHpQBVblMDniuax8NeGYnV_xujIYhzG6s62prmpK1lW5oy2ucUW=
L_u_1hjloCPWcCbkhxRQp2I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44759519 44709379 44069234 43479235 43469366=20
            43939522 44469547=20

=3D =3D =3D
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