Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0760
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 03:31:16

ACUS11 KWNS 110331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110330=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-110530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0760
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Areas affected...TX South Plains...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 110330Z - 110530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated/localized severe threat will probably continue
into the early overnight, but the need for a new severe thunderstorm
watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite mosaic shows a north-south cluster of
thunderstorms near the dryline in the vicinity of the TX-NM border.=20
Strengthening low-level southeasterlies via an intensifying High
Plains LLJ will aid in moisture advection.  Despite increasing CINH,
strengthening large-scale ascent will at least favor a continuation
of thunderstorm activity through midnight.  Veering and
strengthening flow with height has resulted in a wind profile
supporting updraft organization/rotation.  It seems likely several
strong to locally severe thunderstorms will continue over the South
Plains and into the TX Panhandle and pose some risk for marginally
severe hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and perhaps isolated
severe gusts.  The coverage/magnitude of the severe risk remains
uncertain and the need for an additional severe thunderstorm watch
into the late night hours is in question.

...Smith/Thompson.. 05/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7lVM87DtPXWVM3fmrsKXOcloKqwMnxOifSXVdMXtV0O8BtUyVJ4rqz9-x5Gtc1ciMcN20oLTT=
w8I44xwQCjoozWj7CM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33360338 34180332 35850257 36470185 36270120 35940104
            33250224 33120292 33360338=20


=3D =3D =3D
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