Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 11 2023 02:52:24 AWUS01 KWNH 110252 FFGMPD KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110750- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0257 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1051 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Areas affected...Northwest KS into Southwest to South-Central NE Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 110250Z - 110750Z SUMMARY...Locally persistent areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will maintain a concern for some additional flash flooding going into the overnight period. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a couple of persistent and rather slow-moving north/south oriented bands of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity impacting areas of northwest KS and southwest to south-central NE. The convection that had been impacting Decatur and Sheridan counties this evening in northwest KS is beginning to show signs of weakening, however, a stronger axis of convection along the CO/KS border is gradually shifting off to the north-northeast and is getting into close proximity to the Goodland vicinity. The convection continues to focus within a moist and unstable airmass, and with aid of convergent flow in vicinity of a quasi-stationary frontal zone draped from south-central NE and northwest KS over into eastern CO. MLCAPE values over northwest KS are locally as high as 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and the PWs over the region are about 1.5 standard deviations above normal which is helping to drive convection with heavy rainfall rates. There is also fairly divergent flow aloft situated over the region given proximity of a mid to upper-level trough over the Four Corners region, and this coupled with the favorable thermodynamic environment should continue to help facilitate a threat of some slow-moving bands of convection over the next few hours. The aforementioned convection edging east of the CO/KS border and approaching Goodland will likely be the main convective interest heading into the overnight period. Generally the recent HRRR runs and the 18Z HREF guidance support northwest KS and perhaps a small area of southwest NE continuing to be the area with the heaviest rainfall potential. Expect some of the stronger convective cells to continue to be capable of producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, with some additional totals over the next few hours of as much as 3 to 4 inches possible. This may promote some additional flash flooding concerns, and especially for areas that already saw heavy rain this evening and now have sensitive soil conditions. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4gP5wu5z0y-u224czXsCMILoiz6U0b_dnan__r2ernSem-HUAvSwWEGyOuXG6HrQt5lL= 4DBQzEGavmGgjdvHoqzOQ3Y$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40919945 40729879 40239869 39499906 38849961=20 38380033 38190137 38420204 39040208 40030158=20 40660066=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .