Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 00:45:11

ACUS01 KWNS 110045
SWODY1
SPC AC 110043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes,
large to very large hail, and severe wind gusts remain likely this
evening along the High Plains.

....High Plains...

Primary upper trough is beginning to eject northeast across AZ into
the southern Rockies this evening. Water-vapor imagery suggests a
weak short-wave trough may be embedded within the flow downstream
across northeast CO. Considerable amount of convection has evolved
with this lead feature across the central High Plains. Over the last
few hours, an expanding complex of storms has matured over northeast
CO and this activity is expected to advance north across the
Nebraska Panhandle into southeast WY where favorable southeasterly
low-level flow persists. Several supercells are embedded within the
larger complex and deep-layer shear remains strong, so supercells
are expected to continue across this region as lapse rates are steep
and buoyancy more than adequate. Very large hail could accompany the
strongest updrafts and the threat for a few tornadoes also
continues, especially from northeast CO into the NE Panhandle.

Scattered strong/severe convection trails south along the NM/TX
border, just ahead of the southern-stream trough. This progressive
feature will begin to influence the southern High Plains later this
evening which should encourage additional thunderstorm development
as large-scale ascent spreads into this region. Organized
convection, including the threat of supercells, should evolve and
spread east later tonight in response to this feature.

...Darrow.. 05/11/2023

$$

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