Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0759
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 00:33:44

ACUS11 KWNS 110033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110032=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Areas affected...border area of eastern NM and the TX-OK
Panhandle...far southeast CO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208...

Valid 110032Z - 110200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts and large hail are possible with the stronger
storms this evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of quasi-discrete storms
oriented north-south along the NM and TX-OK Panhandle border region
extending into southeast CO.  A mid-level low over northeast AZ will
continue to slowly migrate eastward across parts of the Four Corners
region this evening.  Steep 0-3 km lapse rates abutting the western
periphery of a appreciable moisture will continue to favor storm
development on the southern end of the band of storms south of I-40
near Clovis.  Appreciable deep-layer shear (~40 kt 0-6 km per the
KFDX VAD) and the aforementioned steep lapse rates (8.7 deg C/km in
the 700-500 mb layer per the 00z Amarillo raob), will support an
environment with a continued risk for both severe gusts and large
hail over the next couple of hours.  The risk for large hail will
likely decrease with north extent, especially near the OK/NM/TX/CO
border region, due in part to messy storm morphology farther north.

...Smith.. 05/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!61Sb-tTutm3N3k7U1BVGesUA0Q7O1Jq8ri1u18EgU9l69DcnZaR_4-A9kB0-iXX7L8_xTkZgy=
CcYiP7WKTQC9ppTfj8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34800343 37530310 37780287 37810263 37610250 34500287
            34400306 34460332 34800343=20


=3D =3D =3D
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