Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0758
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 11 2023 00:09:14

ACUS11 KWNS 110009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110008=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Wyoming into western
and central nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 110008Z - 110215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms in northern CO and western KS/NE
should gradually expand northward with a risk for hail and a tornado
or two this evening. A new Weather watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...As of 0010 UTC, regional radar imagery showed several
clusters of strong to severe storms moving northward across WW207.
Over the next hour or two these storms will continue to expand
northward into portions of far southeastern WY and the western NE
Panhandle. Weak upslope flow is supporting around 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE with 35-40 kt of effective shear. A mixed mode of supercells
and multicell clusters may persist north of WW207 and pose a risk
for severe hail and damaging wind gusts into this evening. A tornado
or two may also be possible with the more dominant supercells given
0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2. It remains unclear how far north the
threat may extend this evening as numerous storms may grow upscale
coincident with the loss of diurnal heating. However, the sufficient
buoyancy and shear may allow a few stronger updrafts to persist and
a new weather watch is being considered.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 05/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5q5BdC_bFS7Glp11EJaF9PExIywAO2QnyoV9g-E3DRGDW5oZjeta4CDBOYarb-WBFo_-VXoa_=
Lw_O1UfyA0V3es42CQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40970421 41910419 42070397 42040384 42060174 42040142
            41840118 41320115 40910119 40970421=20


=3D =3D =3D
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