Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 10 2023 21:56:50

AWUS01 KWNH 102156
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0252
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

Areas affected...Northwest KS...Southwest NEB...Adjacent CO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102200Z - 110300Z

SUMMARY...Expanding cluster of thunderstorms appear slow to move
at the apex of stronger moisture flux.  Increasingly efficient
downdrafts could result in localized 2-4" and possible flash
flooding condition through the evening.

DISCUSSION...RADAR and GOES-E visible and EIR loops depict cluster
of thunderstorms over Northwest KS continue to grow and expand
with cell mergers, including upstream redevelopment.  Strong
directional moisture convergence where above normal upper 50s to
low 60s Tds are advected on easterly flow just north of the
eastern edge of a narrow dryline bulge along the CO/KS border.=20
Strengthening southeasterly winds are dry but moistening but
intersecting at an oblique angle to result in strong moisture
convergence to further expand the convective complex centered in
Thomas county.  Additionally, GOES-E WV depicts strong
undercutting/negative-tilt shortwave across NM, while eastern
periphery of the tropical feature over the southern Plains
suggests solid diffluence for effective outflow to
maintain/strengthen the complex.   While mid-levels have steeper
lapse rates, likely evaporating some of the moisture or increasing
hail production, cell mergers and very slow propagation toward the
north and east, duration of 1.5"/hr rates may support localized
2-3" totals across NW KS, eventually sliding northward into SW
NEB.  This falls in line with recent WoFS runs with those totals
between the 50th and 90th percentiles.  Additionaly, this north
and eastward trend would place the complex in proximity to lower
FFG, generally between 2-3" in 1 to 3hrs along and south of the
Platte River Valley.  As such flash flooding is considered
possible through this evening into the early overnight hours.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6CVaQD141la5ZOTpJRgGfhS6V0htWqnIz8O1yqBgzIInZ7YehZW73CPOQmMpi6IB1mXo=
_VQ_EWEpQwtB1j_T5RhRz-M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41130083 40879975 40219922 39739963 39090044=20
            38560160 38830231 39300239 40350198 40980161=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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