Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 10 2023 20:33:21 AWUS01 KWNH 102033 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-110200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0251 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 432 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023 Areas affected...Much of Central & Southern AR... Western& Central MS...Ext Southeast OK... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 102030Z - 110200Z SUMMARY...Compact shortwave and trailing convergence boundaries.=20 Efficient thunderstorms may repeat/train along the upstream edges in the Mississippi Valley posing a possible risk for localized flash flooding. DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible and RADAR mosaic depicts a small compact shortwave with tropical-like features including banding convective arms crossing central AR attm. It is rotating westward under the binary interaction with the slightly larger scale shortwave over northeast TX lifting northward. The broad environment surrounding the waves has been generally exhausted of instability with deep layer near or at moist adiabatic profiles through depth. Still, modified low-level profiles would support narrow skinny CAPE with ample deep layer moisture for efficient warm cloud heavy rainfall cores IF provided surface heating. This has been limited in close proximity to the waves themselves,but a few narrow updrafts ring the compact wave in AR due to some filtered insolation through the morning. The tight confluent banding features, particularly toward the SW quadrant in west central AR into SE OK show some potential for training/repeating along with the efficient rainfall process, so there is some low end risk for localized 2-3" streaks as it moves west but overall coverage is likely to be very limited areally. Further southeast, GOES-E has shown a much clearer sky allowing for some insolation with surface temps increasing to the upper 70s and low 80s. Modified soundings suggest this should support 1500-2000 J/kg of skinny CAPE. RADAR and satellite loops show some scattered development with some expansion delineating some of the southeastern quadrant convergence bands for the shortwave feature in southeast AR into W MS. Pooled moisture through depth generally totals between 1.75-1.9" using CIRA LPW/GPS obs and while inflow is weak, there should be support for cores to produce 2"/hr rates. Streaks of 2-4" are possible but will require short-term training/repeating along those outer banding features, which is generally around the FFG values for 1-3hr period which seem reasonable given relative soil moisture values are 60-75% in the area through 40cm according to NASA SPoRT LIS product across much of LA/SW MS into S AR which is about the 80th percentile of normal. While, there is no certainty of these bands aligning long enough, the possibility is enough to consider localized flash flooding possible through the evening, particularly south and east where instability and updraft strength with be greatest. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4lwEcYn951HLqX9yRyTfSBg6QorsCv5qrQ1K7NAir8dS83o_cNjvGZS18poKTavYCS92= 1Z5SvVawsbk_BInln0YDSdk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35559378 35519231 35009099 34469016 33678951=20 32658897 31668967 31739109 32379208 33059291=20 33569366 34359469 35219462=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .