Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0754 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 10 2023 19:26:40 ACUS11 KWNS 101926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101925=20 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-102130- Mesoscale Discussion 0754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Areas affected...CO Front Range into the southern/central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 101925Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon. The strongest storms will capable of large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a few tornadoes. One or more watches will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon, a nearly stationary front extends from northwest KS southwestward toward southern parts of the CO Front Range. Low-level east/northeasterly flow has advected modest low-level moisture into the Front Range vicinity. Decreasing low-level cloudiness has allowed for some modest heating as well, resulting in the development of moderate buoyancy and decreasing MLCINH. A few storms have already developed across the higher terrain of central CO, with additional development expected this afternoon into the Front Range and southward into parts of south-central/southeast CO, northeast NM, and the western TX/OK Panhandles. Another area of possible development is across northwest KS, where strong heating/mixing south of the boundary may help to initiate storms near the front.=20=20=20 Moderate midlevel southerly flow in advance of an upper trough moving eastward across the southern Rockies is supporting effective shear of 35-50 kt, with higher values noted north of the front where surface winds are backed to a east or northeast direction. As a result, a few organized clusters and/or supercells may develop later this afternoon, with a threat of large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and isolated severe gusts. Low-level shear/SRH will also be relatively maximized along/north of the surface boundary, where a few tornadoes will be possible as well.=20 One or more watches are likely to be issued within the next 1-2 hours. Tornado Watch issuance is more likely from east-central/northeast CO into northwest KS/southwest NE, where low-level flow/shear is more favorable. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed farther south to cover the threat of large hail and potentially severe wind gusts. ...Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-LEHb6GNww9rp06FWaeHJk7WULhEXTcL2CD-VpQ1yAAVUCbxhioPXf137LsLfzj8mhmsJ9qEg= UH8XZ6D48dRjQSc17w$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 39600578 40790531 40790204 40230025 39780002 38599962 38569969 38450088 38070259 37380279 35830285 35330437 35480529 36010569 37540573 38500578 38930579 39600578=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .