Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 10 2023 01:02:35 ACUS01 KWNS 100102 SWODY1 SPC AC 100100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds and large hail should continue this evening across parts of Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri. Occasional damaging winds and severe hail will also remain possible early this evening across eastern North Carolina. ....Southern/Central Plains... An MCS across northeastern OK/southwestern MO may continue to produce at least isolated damaging winds for a couple more hours this evening. This MCS should eventually weaken as it moves into a less unstable airmass in south-central MO and northern AR. An ongoing cluster of supercells in southwest/south-central KS is generally elevated to the north of an pronounced outflow boundary. A strengthening southerly low-level jet this evening may help sustain this convection, even as it becomes increasingly elevated. The presence of strong MUCAPE and deep-layer shear across this area should support a continued threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps an instance or two of very large hail with any sustained, intense supercell. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO/WY and western NE should aid in mainly elevated convection this evening/tonight. Mainly isolated large hail could occur with the strongest cores, as persistent low-level warm/moist advection will be in place. ....Carolinas... A threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds will persist for another hour or two this evening (until 02-03Z), mainly across eastern NC. Ongoing convection should quickly move offshore in this time frame. See Mesoscale Discussion 750 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this area. ....Northern Plains... Widely spaced storms over parts of ND/SD may continue for a couple more hours this evening as a weak shortwave trough ejects northeastward over the northern Plains. Sufficient instability and shear are present to support supercells, with an associated threat for large hail and strong/gusty winds. Have reoriented the Marginal Risk across the Dakotas to account for the ongoing convection and its expected evolution over the next few hours. ....Coastal/South Texas... An MCV over south-central TX should continue to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms tonight through early Wednesday morning. With a rich low-level airmass in place and modest enhancement to the low/mid-level wind fields, occasional damaging winds and hail may occur with any multicells, or perhaps a supercell, that can be sustained in this favorable environment. ...Gleason.. 05/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .