Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0747
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 09 2023 20:54:02

ACUS11 KWNS 092053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092053=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023

Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS into southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204...

Valid 092053Z - 092230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for potentially significant wind gusts and
large hail will spread southeastward into the early evening.
Downstream watch issuance now appears likely within the hour.

DISCUSSION...The long-lived MCS continues to move across eastern KS
late this afternoon, with sporadic measured gusts of 60-80 mph noted
within the last 1-2 hours. A nearly stationary surface boundary is
still noted in surface observations and on visible satellite
imagery, though some modification has occurred on the cool side of
the boundary, with increasing cumulus and MLCAPE noted from east of
Topeka to south of Kansas City.=20

Moderate to strong buoyancy will help to sustain this MCS as it
moves southeastward into this evening, though increasingly marginal
deep-layer flow/shear downstream could eventually limit the
organization/intensity of the MCS to some extent. The greatest
short-term severe wind threat may focus along the surface boundary
into southeast KS, where instability and low-level convergence is
more favorable and the gust front has not yet notably surged ahead
of the leading convection.=20

Based on the expected timing of the MCS, downstream watch issuance
into far southeast KS and southwest MO is likely within the hour.

...Dean/Guyer.. 05/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!47XVrvqdjwoVM6bvFcWOzupi_hkndjKO1MuNy4USkkTSO3OyGknthwah_2YmM8Tv7FhDmObOg=
sLpq6jt-NP7RcfHhv0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39039650 38669491 38069428 37469430 37229467 37329583
            37559647 38039737 38519698 39039650=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.