Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0743
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 09 2023 19:44:59

ACUS11 KWNS 091944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091944=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023

Areas affected...Southwest MO into extreme southeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091944Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible through late
afternoon, with an increasing severe threat by evening associated
with the upstream MCS. The need for watch issuance in the short term
is uncertain, but will be increasingly likely by 5-6 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed near Springfield, MO, in
the vicinity of a warm frontal zone. Deep-layer flow is rather weak
across southwest MO this afternoon, but low-level southeasterly
winds veering to southwesterly aloft are supporting effective shear
of around 25-30 kt, sufficient for at least weakly organized storms,
given the favorable instability (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) in place.
Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts will be possible through the
remainder of the afternoon.=20

With the threat this afternoon expected to remain rather isolated
and marginal, the need for watch issuance is uncertain in the short
term. However, watch issuance may become increasingly likely by 5-6
PM CDT, as an intense MCS currently over KS potentially approaches
the area from the northwest.

...Dean/Guyer.. 05/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_8feuJozl_CzM2hKLOTkf6f4fVtd-laoHnoYZ9f4nfTJ_vE3YuZhPy-j1sZJUcSNFO4rhAhsb=
-jtW5bqDmxtHshkj10$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   37309502 38099496 38219428 37769327 37019268 36909269
            36679332 36879454 37309502=20


=3D =3D =3D
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