Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0742 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 09 2023 18:59:29 ACUS11 KWNS 091859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091858=20 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-092030- Mesoscale Discussion 0742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Areas affected...Portions of east Texas...northern and central Louisiana...and southwest Mississippi. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 091858Z - 092030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible along an arcing line of storms this afternoon. DISCUSSION...An arcing line of storms has developed from far eastern Texas across southern Louisiana. These storms have formed in an environment with ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE (per SPC Mesoanalysis) and effective shear less than 15 knots. Therefore, storms have been predictably weak and unorganized. There is some potential for cold pool intensification with these developing storms which could lead to a slightly higher damaging wind threat as they move north into northern Louisiana and western Mississippi. However, the environment should not change much through the afternoon and since there have not been any reports or stronger cores thus far, expect any severe weather threat to remain brief and weak. ...Bentley/Guyer.. 05/09/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_q9IIbcUpOyyI4W1X8saQsP9iycct54mDj4-8KROxZEr0s9a_tiAbKnjQ6QWCHG2mY84tEoeA= M4oFG7z4pAQ95ihulM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30559451 30759500 31719513 32659429 33069347 33009188 32949124 32079014 31198941 30758946 30318995 30349162 30519287 30559451=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .