Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0740
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 09 2023 17:37:00

ACUS11 KWNS 091736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091736=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 091736Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 19Z
across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front is present from central Virginia to
far northeast North Carolina early this afternoon. This front
separates an airmass with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and
dewpoints in the low 60s to the south from temperatures in the 70s
and dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 to the north. This front
will start to surge south through the day as a mid-level shortwave
trough moves through the region and high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes. As it does, expect some thunderstorm development along
the front. Initially these storms will form in relatively weak
buoyancy, but eventually will move into greater instability in
east-central North Carolina where mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
move inland with MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This moderate to
strong instability, combined with effective shear around 35 knots
will support supercell structures with a threat for large hail and
damaging winds. Given the cloud-layer shear, cannot rule out some
hail approaching 1.75" to 2" diameter with the strongest supercells
near maturity, especially as they move into east-central North
Carolina where the greatest instability is anticipated.=20=20

A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 19Z.

...Bentley/Guyer.. 05/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9joNhQ-veK-K11wyN0qPSvlHSB23HLEmhd5XqAiZWgk6eeNVeGsz-US9FIctRBcEobyzUeue1=
ZymOETug8aCJW3nHFU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   34517662 34487721 34157770 33817791 33787802 33887821
            34487898 34877921 35587926 36547917 37057889 37317830
            37027765 36567706 35787572 35267545 35187544 34647632
            34517662=20


=3D =3D =3D
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