Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0739
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 09 2023 15:02:29

ACUS11 KWNS 091502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091502=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-091630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023

Areas affected...Northern/central KS into extreme south-central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

Valid 091502Z - 091630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging wind gusts is expected to
increase later this morning, along with a continued risk of large
hail. Downstream watch issuance is likely before 11 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Gradual upscale growth of intense elevated convection
has been noted this morning across far south-central NE into
northwest KS, within a favorable environment characterized by MUCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg, and effective shear of 35-45 kt. Full insolation
downstream will allow for removal of MLCINH along/south of this
developing MCS, with a transition to more of a surface-based system
expected late this morning into this afternoon.=20

Embedded supercells will remain possible with this cluster as it
moves east-southeastward along the instability gradient, with steep
midlevel lapse rates supporting a hail threat, including some
potential for isolated very large hail. The threat for severe gusts
will also increase as the cold pool matures and the downstream
environment becomes increasingly favorable for surface-based
convection. An embedded brief tornado or two also cannot be ruled
out with stronger embedded supercells and/or more transient
QLCS-related circulations, especially as surface-based buoyancy
increases with time.=20

The severe threat will eventually extend downstream of WW 203 late
this morning into this afternoon, and downstream watch issuance is
likely into parts of central/eastern KS and far southeast NE by 11
AM CDT.

...Dean/Guyer.. 05/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4ZPronMAoBCNDXxqkiKziYF8NrkA3uCgUIVIuiXTIGrhcCfIqLn3wrBDsN9r7CDnWGLk_BBn-=
NheMCNFkctMfwoKCig$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40319907 40129724 39789612 38949581 38499598 38179677
            38409790 38669899 39129989 39500055 39899969 40319907=20


=3D =3D =3D
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