Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 09 2023 13:06:15

AWUS01 KWNH 091306
FFGMPD
TXZ000-091800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0244
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 AM EDT Tue May 09 2023

Areas affected...south-central to southeastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091304Z - 091800Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of south-central to southeastern TX through 18Z. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr will be likely with 2+ in/hr possible at times.

Discussion...Infrared/radar imagery this morning showed an
interesting pattern across southern TX with an MCV/mid-level
closed low just south of San Antonio and another MCV roughly 100
miles east of Corpus Christi. MRMS derived rainfall rates have
shown 1 to 2+ in/hr along an eastward surging outflow boundary
that was over Matagorda Bay at 1245Z, tied to the circulation
closer to San Antonio. The environment depicted by the 12Z SPC
mesoanalysis indicated MLCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg and PWATs of 1.5
to 1.9 inches along the middle TX coast, certainly supportive of
high rainfall rates.

850-300 mb flow was from the south at 10-20 kt between San Antonio
and Houston with low level (850 mb) winds of 20-25 kt, supporting
upwind Corfidi vectors from north to south. Areas of heavy rain
are likely along the middle to upper tX coast tied to the eastward
propagating cold pool over the next 1-2 hours along with
additional convective development out ahead within the unstable
airmass later on this morning. Increasing upper level diffluience
will occur as a negatively tilted upper tough axis along the Rio
Grande edges eastward, aiding with lift across the region. Some
backing of the deeper layer mean flow is expected late this
morning for the upper TX coast along with possible strengthening
of the 850-700 mb flow, ahead of the approaching MCV offshore as
it nears Galveston Bay. Rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr are expected
with localized totals of 3-4 inches through 18Z which may result
in some areas of flash flooding.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!90uhXNwHl0lR3OjvuGcKvDpNNvyNHKGRrjaYDAhpDiuAHSV6w6Lodv7l_2LDZIp_4RnV=
6yCkxoFoqT6mQYZoyfaVAYI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30539640 30529547 30509447 30139393 29839390=20
            29469396 29239433 29079473 28439591 28059668=20
            28329708 28869721 29179735 29619775 29959773=20
            30469721=20

=3D =3D =3D
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