Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0738
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 09 2023 11:25:29

ACUS11 KWNS 091125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091124=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-091230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 091124Z - 091230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail is expected to develop over parts
of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas over the next 1 to 2 hours.
WW issuance will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Goodland shows
three short line segments ongoing in southwest Nebraska. This
activity is located near the nose of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet.
This feature will likely strengthen over the next few hours,
resulting in a continued increase in convective coverage. The storms
will move east-southeastward along a gradient of moderate
instability across far southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. MUCAPE
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with effective shear near 50 knots, evident on
regional forecast soundings, will likely be favorable for supercells
with large hail. Although the storms will likely remain elevated, a
few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

...Broyles/Grams.. 05/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7JaGuVO1RGlC0CW3zNWAfeQVyCpvBbgO32I4i5TzwXoUXZhWx7g3wBnhFONpWRBmBKlxDLMwv=
nRAJqNu7cZZcN6vvD4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39169821 39329755 39809732 40139754 40649857 40949963
            41210068 41270152 41140190 40730232 40240233 39910178
            39570054 39259904 39169821=20


=3D =3D =3D
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