Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 09 2023 08:38:27

ACUS48 KWNS 090838
SWOD48
SPC AC 090836

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper low is forecast to drift very slowly northeastward across
the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity Day 4/Friday, while a second/weak
disturbance moves out of northern Mexico into central and southern
Texas.  While thunderstorms -- and some severe potential -- will
likely occur in the vicinity of these two features, risk appears too
low to highlight with a 15% area at this time.

For the remainder of the period, weak flow aloft is forecast across
all but the Northeast/Great Lakes region, which should generally
limit severe potential on the broader scale.  As a blocking high
develops over western North America and lingers through the medium
range, eastern U.S. troughing will gradually evolve.  While this
increase in troughing -- and the magnitude of the upper flow field
-- could lead to some increase in potential for severe weather
through latter stages of the period, differences amongst the models
suggest limited predictability of the pattern evolution.

...Goss.. 05/09/2023

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