Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 09 2023 07:34:25 ACUS03 KWNS 090734 SWODY3 SPC AC 090733 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday afternoon and evening across the central Plains vicinity, where large hail can be expected along with locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ....Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie over the central High Plains area early in the day is forecast to pivot slowly northeastward across Nebraska and into South Dakota through the period. At this occurs, a surface low is forecast to shift northeastward out of Colorado along roughly the same path, while a trailing trough/dryline reaches central Kansas/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Elsewhere, ridging on the western and eastern flanks of the low will affect the West Coast, and the Southeast/Midwest, while northwesterly flow aloft prevails across New England. ....The Plains states from South Dakota to Oklahoma... Ahead of the advancing surface system, afternoon heating across the central Plains and vicinity will combine with a seasonably moist boundary layer to yield moderate destabilization -- particularly from central Nebraska southward. While a low-level capping inversion will limit convective coverage with southward extent, particularly given the northeastward advance of the upper system, isolated storms are forecast to develop along the dryline by late afternoon as far south as central Kansas and western Oklahoma. Here, steep lapse rates and veering/increasing flow with height will support supercells, with very large hail and a damaging gust or two expected, and possibly a tornado. Farther north -- into Nebraska and South Dakota, instability will decrease with northward extent. Still, with low-level southeasterly flow veering to a more southerly direction at mid levels will support organized/rotating storms, with risk for hail and locally damaging wind gusts along with a tornado or two. Storms may grow upscale overnight as the low-level jet increases, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley along with some hail/wind potential. ...Goss.. 05/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .